Saturday, September 13, 2014

15 Million reasons why AJ Burnett wasn't the right choice for the Phillies





AJ Burnett was going to retire at the conclusion of last season. Maybe for this year's Phillies he should have made good on that promise.

Burnett was lured away from retirement with a great deal from the Phillies. He gets to play closer to his Maryland home and gets a nice $15M plus from the Phillies in the first year, and the chance to return next year at about the same deal including his signing bonuses.

But was this signing the best move for the Phillies?

Let's start out with the way Burnett has been pitching this year. He's having his worst season ever for a full season as a professional pitcher. The only other time he's lost as many games during a full season was when he was with the NY Yankees in 2010 and he lost 15 games.

Burnett's record stands at 8-16 this season with the Phillies. That's 16 losses that he's been tagged with in this season that has been a complete and utter failure on all accounts with this team. Before I get a lot of mail saying "you can't tell how good a pitcher is by his record" type of emails, let me continue.

Here's some stats on Win Probability, naturally the (-) negative numbers aren't good. Burnett has seemed to turn in those negative numbers in bunches with the Yankees and now this year's Phillies team.

Year Age Tm PtchR PtchW WPA/LI Clutch RE24/boLI
1999 22 FLA 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.0
2000 23 FLA -2.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.0 0.8
2001 24 FLA 5.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 6.0
2002 25 FLA 15.3 1.6 2.6 -0.5 26.0
2003 26 FLA -1.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -2.4
2004 27 FLA 7.7 0.8 1.4 -0.3 16.1
2005 28 FLA 8.1 0.8 1.5 -0.9 12.4
2006 29 TOR 8.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 3.4
2007 30 TOR 13.8 1.4 1.5 0.5 15.3
2008 31 TOR 3.9 0.4 0.7 0.3 9.2
2009 32 NYY 13.1 1.3 0.9 -0.1 10.1
2010 33 NYY -19.0 -1.8 -3.3 1.2 -34.2
2011 34 NYY -15.6 -1.5 -2.4 0.9 -24.4
2012 35 PIT 5.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 5.4
2013 36 PIT 3.4 0.4 1.0 -0.6 9.4
2014 37 PHI -15.8 -1.6 -1.4 -0.3 -16.3
16 Yrs 31.9 3.3 3.4 2.2 36.7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2014.


Burnett has been a player that has careered an aura about him. When he won a World Series with the Marlins and Yankees, his legend grew. His career record speaks differently though. His overall record as a pitcher is just a few games above .500 now for wins/losses but he's made over $135M over his career and a 4.02 ERA averaged out.

Here's Burnett's career record:

Year Age Tm W L W-L% ERA Awards
1999 22 FLA 4 2 .667 3.48
2000 23 FLA 3 7 .300 4.79
2001 24 FLA 11 12 .478 4.05
2002 25 FLA 12 9 .571 3.30
2003 26 FLA 0 2 .000 4.70
2004 27 FLA 7 6 .538 3.68
2005 28 FLA 12 12 .500 3.44
2006 29 TOR 10 8 .556 3.98
2007 30 TOR 10 8 .556 3.75
2008 31 TOR 18 10 .643 4.07
2009 32 NYY 13 9 .591 4.04
2010 33 NYY 10 15 .400 5.26
2011 34 NYY 11 11 .500 5.15
2012 35 PIT 16 10 .615 3.51
2013 36 PIT 10 11 .476 3.30
2014 37 PHI 8 16 .333 4.34
16 Yrs 155 148 .512 4.02
162 Game Avg. 13 12 .512 4.02
FLA (7 yrs) 49 50 .495 3.73
NYY (3 yrs) 34 35 .493 4.79
TOR (3 yrs) 38 26 .594 3.94
PIT (2 yrs) 26 21 .553 3.41
PHI (1 yr) 8 16 .333 4.34
NL (10 yrs) 83 87 .488 3.73
AL (6 yrs) 72 61 .541 4.39
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/13/2014.

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